Babies in Britain are becoming a scarcity. A report out today shows that the birth rate has fallen to a record low.  In 2022 there were just 605,000 live births in England and Wales the lowest number since 2002, and a 3% drop from 2021. Abortion is a ‘big player’ in population decline according to  pro-life researcher Dr Gregory Pike in a paper commissioned by SPUC ‘How does abortion affect birth rates and demography?’

Births are plummeting in other Western countries, as well as in China, Russia and a number of Asian countries, triggering alarm from governments that are facing the economic and social problems associated with too few workers supporting an aging population.

At the same time, with the population of the world expected to reach 10 billion by the end of the century, there are still those pedalling the fear of global over-population.

So as some governments are sinking millions of pounds into encouraging people to have children, at a global level scientists are also exhorting women to have only one child, or better still none at all.[1]

Abortion and contraception are the essential tools which have enabled countries to pursue disastrous population reduction strategies. Yet, a Dr Pike points out ‘solutions to population decline seem to include everything but reducing contraception and abortion’.

Falling birth rates

Abortion is not the only factor which has impacted fertility decline.  Dr Pike identifies a range of influences on decisions to have a baby. Greater numbers of women in the workforce have certainly contributed to falling birth rates. Financial instability also puts couples off having children.  In the US, birth rates dropped after the 2007 Great Recession, but unlike after previous recessions, the birth rate did not pick up and has declined steadily since then. Other factors making people hesitant about having children are rising divorce rates and so-called ‘parenting intensity’ in which couples want to shower more resources on fewer children.

Motherhood dread

Social media has also played in big part in promoting ‘motherhood dread’.  Concerns about climate change are often cited as reasons for not bringing children into the world, however, one study found that the real reasons women gave for avoiding motherhood were much more self-centred, such as pursuing a career and a desire for ‘leisure consumption’.[2]

Do financial incentives encourage people to have children? Dr Pike found that the number of countries introducing policies to promote fertility rose from 19 in 1986 to 55 in 2015, but with only modest or temporary results.  Japan, for example, has extensive pro-natalist policies, but the fertility rate remains one of the lowest in the world, with its population expected to drop by 33% in just over 50 years.[3] So it seems that money is not enough to tempt couples to have babies.

Restricting abortion

Could restricting abortion make a difference? Dr Pike points out that the role of abortion in fertility decisions is complex, as is the relationship between abortion, pregnancy and birth.  ‘Put simply, however’, says Dr Pike, ‘when abortion policies become less restrictive the birth rate decreases and when they become more restrictive, the birth rate increases.’

It seems that the extent of the restrictions on abortion is significant. In the US restrictions such as parental involvement laws, abortion funding restrictions and mandatory delay requirements resulted in fewer pregnancies and abortions, but had no effect on births.  In Eastern European countries modest abortion restrictions led to fewer abortions but no rise in births. Stronger restrictions however, increased the birth rate by 10%.[4]

Births in Texas

A lot of the evidence about how abortion restrictions impact fertility comes from the US. A number of studies reveal how abortion restrictions have played out in terms of pregnancy and births. Texas provides an interesting case study. Between 2011 – 2014 legal changes in Texas led to abortion funding restrictions and the closure of half of all abortion clinics. Following these restrictions studies showed an increase in births ranging from 1.2 % to 3%.  Births in Texas increased where similar restrictions in other places had resulted in no increase in births.

Then in September 2021 Texas Senate Bill 8 banned all abortions where a baby’s heartbeat could be detected. This resulted in an overall drop of 38% in abortions[5] among Texan residents (both in state and out of state) and an increase in births varying month to month from 1.7% to 5.1%.[6]

After Roe v. Wade was overturned in June 2022, Texas and some other US states introduced even more restrictive abortion policies. At least one study has found that in the first six months of 2023 there was a 2.3% increase in births in states restricting abortion, compared with states without restrictions. And this was despite women traveling to other states for abortion, and an increase in abortion pills by post.[7]

Many people are starting to say that population decline is the most serious issue facing humanity. Severe restrictions or an outright ban on abortion could be the decisive move needed to revive population growth.  According to Dr Pike, the most likely outcome of more restrictive abortion policies would be fewer abortions and fewer pregnancies (once abortion is removed as a failsafe) and an increase in births.

Let women have the children they want

Bribing women to have children doesn’t work. So what about discouraging abortion or simply removing it as an option? Will we see women in the throes of despair?  Probably not. It transpires that women would like to have more children than they eventually have.[8]  Dr Pike concludes that ‘it is time to discourage it to enable women to have the children they desire, which in turn will increase the overall birth rate.’